By now the whole world knows that the once richest nation in South America — due to massive oil reserves — Venezuela has attracted the attention of President Donald J Trump and that’s not a good thing.
So, Big Red Car, what’s the deal with Trump and Venezuela?
Ahhh, dear reader, it’s a complicated issue, but let me see if I can simplify it. Here goes:
Immigration — President Trump has been vexed with Venezuela as it sent all of its violent criminals and mentally disturbed to the United States when President Biden hung out the “WELCOME” sign to everybody.
Trump’s right about this.
Gangs — With the criminals came all kinds of gang activity never before seen in the United States such as TdA — Tren de Aragua — a virulently violent gang that has now infiltrated a great number of important American cities.
Trump considers this an invasion and sees it as a great obstacle to his policy to reduce crime and enhance law enforcement. Again, the old boy is right on this.
State sponsored narcoterrorism — At the core of Venezuela’s affronts to President Trump is his fixation on the use of the power of the sovereign state of Venezuela by its leader — Nick Maduro, a thoroughly nasty piece of trash who stole his election — to oversee the transport of narcotics (primarily cocaine coming out of Columbia) and being shipped by Venezuela to Caribbean islands and then to the United States and Europe.
This illegal money is how Nick Maduro holds his corrupt regime together as it ends up in the pockets not of the state, but his pals.
Illegitimate leadership — Trump believes — line forms to the right, y’all — that Nick Maduro is an illegitimate leader having used corruption, violence, illicit funds, and raw power to steal more than one presidential election.
Oil — Many things get down to a fundamental economic consideration; in this instance, Venezuela, it is oil. Venezuela once shipped 3,453,000 barrels per day back in December 1997. Since the institution of socialism by Chavez and Maduro that number is currently less than 1,000,000 bpd and almost every drop is going to China.
Two angles here: punish China and flood the market with cheap oil thereby making Russia’s financing of the Ukraine invasion more difficult.
Regime change — In Trump’s head — in that little space where he safeguards the things even he won’t say aloud — the solution to all of this is regime change, the toppling of the Maduro regime and the installation of a regime more friendly to the United States and one that can put Venezuela back on the path to economic prosperity within a democratic framework.
Uhhh, Big Red Car, you haven’t even mentioned “national security,” Ace
Haha, no I haven’t so let me add this. There are five malfeasors at work here: Maduro and his regime, China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.
In many ways this is the greatest collaboration of shitheads anywhere in the world. It also runs afoul of the oft misinterpretated US Monroe Doctrine (US President James Monroe 1823) which essentially warned Europeans powers to stay the Hell out of the Western Hemisphere.
Maduro regime — We have discussed the Maduro regime. It is a corrupt, criminal, socialist regime that needs to be removed like a brain tumor.
China — China — often the lender of last resort for corrupt regimes — has lent Chavez/Maduro Venezuela $60,000,000,000 and is redeeming that obligation at the rate of about $3,650,000,000 annually in discounted oil exports.Do the math, that’s a long term relationship.
The Chinese have an economic, military, and general fucking around interest in Venezuela.
The economic interest is oil, a steady supply of discounted oil, and the ability to sell gobs of Chinese gear into Venezuela. This provides the ability to use Chinese gear in a dual role as intel gathering apparatus.
China and Venezuela recently signed a tariff-free trade agreement that includes China providing radar, surveillance technology, and satellite launches to Venezuala with Venzuela providing — drum roll, wait for it — oil in return.
The military interest is access to Venezuelan ports at which the Chinese navy can call for maintenance and support. This expands the footprint of the Chinese navy in close proximity to the Panama Canal, a vital shipping lane in the event of war with the United States.
The fucking around interest is a platform for cyber warfare against the United States and the future intrusion of fentanyl production as a diversification from the China - Mexico fentanyl partnership.
Russia — Russia has been Venezuela’s Big Brother since the early 2000s pumping in more than $12,000,000,000 arms deals for advanced Russian gear such as fighter jets, air defeense, and tanks. Russia has an outpost that is 1,500 miles from Florida.
Russia is also on the oil sugar tit — what else does Venezuela have, really? Rosneft has more than $9,000,000,000 invested in energy development ventures.
Former Wagner Group mercenaries (yes, those guys from Ukraine) now rebranded as the Africa Corps provide training and run joint operations with the Venezuelan army.
The Russian connection confronts the United States with the potential to have Russian weapons — such as hypersonic missiles located near the Panama Canal.
The Russia - China - Venezuela connection is a potential tinderbox situation in the event of US military action against the Maduro regime.
Iran — Tehran — with gobs of experience directing, training, and funding terror regimes like Hamas, Hezbollah — is also involved with the Maduro regime in the energy business using shadow oil tankers to transport sanctioned crude oil from Venezuela to Iran and Cuba.
These shadow tankers is exactly how Iran assists Venezuela in sending oil from Venezuela to Cuba, another pain in the ass Communist country.
Venezuelan black markets in gold and oil are used by Iran to launder funds held by or for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps which BTW controls half of the Iranian economy. This is how Iran moves money to Hamas and Hezbollah and how Venezuela has become an important hub for funding terror activities in the Middle East. Who knew?
Iran sells weapons and cyber tech to Venezuela including Scud missiles that could reach Miami in the event of US v Venezuela hostilities.
Cuba — Cuba the OG Communist repressor of its long suffering people was also once a wealthy nation brought to its knees for more than 70 years by scumbags is a huge beneficiary of Venezuelan largess with Venezuela shipping gobs of oil to Cuba using the ghost fleet overseen by Iran.
In return, Cuba trains Marduro’s thugs as to how to repress the people and how to infiltrate Venezuelan migrant flows into the United States with spies and other provocateurs.
As you can see from the above, the United States views the situation in Venezuela as a Great Power proxy contest with the United States pitted against its current rivals China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba to a lesser extent.
The ideal outcome would be regime change with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba kicked to the curb in the process.
Remember this is the hemisphere in which Monroe said our American interests should reign supreme. That has really not changed.
OK, Big Red Car, where is this headed?
Dear reader, the Trump admin is beginning a gradual escalation of actions that will culminate in a change of regime in Venezuela by the 4th of July 2026.
It will use the pretext of narcotrafficking to begin hostilities, expand into sanctions enforcement, and ultimately strike land targets.
It will not take Maduro a long time to realize the cavalry is not coming to save him in this hemisphere. The Chinese, Russians, Iranians, and the Cubans will not support Venezuela or Maduro.
The nations of Columbia and Nicaragua will do some heavy pearl clutching. Mexico will protest because they know who is next.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
Merry Christmas
Venezuela's grift, and economy will be gone in 12 weeks, possibly sooner without the underground oil trade. Maduro will be gone. In the short run, the Chinese will pay whatever they have to pay to get crude oil. In the long run, with Maduro gone, there were be LOTS of oil on the market and prices will not spike that much.
Appreciate the write up BRC, would appreciate it even more if our leadership made this case clear.
🎄 Merry Christmas if I don't pop in over the next couple of weeks.